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Monday, July 6, 2009

Potential Trouble in US Equities

The the GBPJPY is 95% correlated with the S&P 500 over the last five years, and the currency pair just tanked after completing the same head and shoulders pattern that the US stock market is setting up for. S&P 500 futures have been bad since the market opened this week and will likely be bad all day today, Monday.

The USD/JPY used to be highly correlated to the US stock market as borrowers would borrow money to buy US stocks, or deleverage and sell US stocks. That correlation broke down when the US Fed dropped it's interest rate to 0-0.25%. There was no reason to to buy the USD/JPY when the GBP/JPY still returned a healthy margin. The GBP/JPY correlation should hold as long as the Bank of England doesn't interfere. They do have rate decisions and a lot of economic data coming out, so the GBP/SPY correlation should be monitored closely



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