I have compared Japanese trade balance data with the USD/JPY exchange rate to determine that the dollar could appreciate as much as eight ce...
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Positve Supply Shocks
A quick reminder about the macro environment: Positive supply shocks are characterized by lower prices and higher quantities demanded. They can be caused by lower input costs.
Year over Year Eurozone PPI numbers are down over 6%.
An old San Fransisco Fed article instructs us to focus on nominal GDP (or spending) to get a handle on inflation during positive supply shocks.
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